“We will overcome these conditions and rebuild everything” are the words by Iran’s president. This deck of cards began to fall apart when airstrikes were launched on February 28, 2026. An age old conflict started between two countries now has reached its peak, a turning point of the whole World’s involvement.
Iran, the holy land where Zoroastrianism was established to practice a purified life. The very land of Rumi’s poetic expression, and Shams Tabrez’s honest conversations. “Look inside yourself,everything that you want,
you are already that.” (Quote by Rumi)The region emerged as a significant contributor of mathematics, science, medicine and astronomy. The air of Iran is filled with the Persian ‘Sorood’. Its distinct geography does not only create beauty but provides a resource basin making it the third largest in the world. In addition to this, Iran has an absolute advantage due to its critical oil route the Strait of Hormuz.
If we dive into the history of Iran, we observe that many empires emerged and scattered on the lands of Tabrez. From Achaemenid Empire the Great Cyrus to the Alexander the Great. The Caliphat dynasties were also witnessed by the Persian society. Each dynasty created the diversity in terms of socio-economic and political horizons, each shaping the evolving expectations of administrations.
The last monarch of modern Persia was Mohammad Reza Pahlavi who brought reforms to modernize the Iranian society, the reforms came to be known as White Revolution. The reform aimed to compensate peasantry by the redistribution of wealth from aristocrat landlords. The reforms granted women more rights and financed schemes on education especially rural areas.
The aftermath of the revolution was explosive economic expansion with the annual growth rate of 9.8%. The economy witnessed a rise in income of Iranian Middle class. Later, these funds were used to purchase foreign weapons for making Iran a geopolitical power. The revenues increased the state spending for major industrial development project in Iran.
The land reform in later period saw social divergence as the top tier only saw the benefit but that economic class was also under burden of higher taxes, which further accelerate the criticism. The unsatisfied small landowners sold their lands and migrated to cities. Moreover the manufacturing sector faced backlash as it was not properly planned due to lack of human resource & skill development. The per capita of Iran in 1978 led to a sharp decline which was triggered by global oil prices.
Apart from this, the religious Shiah clergy were also dissatisfied because reforms removed the traditional powers enjoyed by clergy authority. Then in 1979 Ruhollah Mostafavi Khomeini founded the Islamic Republic of Iran, become the first Supreme leader the Islamic Republic of Iran, A major regime shift that changed the society of Iran, making it more Shariyat oriented.
How Geography Affects the Tectonics of Geopolitics?
“Realism is about the recognition of the most blunt, uncomfortable, and deterministic truths: those of geography.”
Qoute by Robert D. Kaplan
The geographical features of the country plays a huge role while dealing with global tensions and most of the time these features lead to global conflict. The recent case of Venezuela, purely motivated for its oil reserve. From a distance it may look like a internal protests but it was one of tectonic shift fueled externally.
The most famous regime change is the Afganistan (the graveyard of Empires). This landlocked country acted as a shield for Indian Subcontinent. Its uneven topography and harsh weather and internal tribal resistance made this lands of Pathans a graveyard. According to the history, Alexander the Great was so exhausted that this proverb fits his remark “May God keep you away from the venom of the cobra, the teeth of the tiger and the revenge of the Afghans”.
Major global powers, notably the British Empire, the Soviet Union and the United States invaded, their goal was its rich resource but three powers failed to achieve lasting control and as a result these country borne only loss. Its structural change of communalism didn’t work even with Soviet Union’s intervention. Indeed, Afganistan is the graveyard of Empires.
The Greenland crises also emerged. Strategic dominance in Arctic circle. This dominance will enable countries to access untapped natural resources and a privilege of changing shipping routes due to the global warming. The opinions about the geographical influence and its influence of geopolitics have remained mixed as we have seen on skeptical remarks in our Parliament due to occupied lands’s fertility.
The term ‘Headless Horseman’ situation of Iran prevailed till the next Supreme leader. No one remained to pick the call of negotiations, as no one is left to lead the country. Death of their supreme leader has blown a master stroke, wounding the ego of Iranian authority, creating the dynamics of do or die. The opinions of the assassination of Khamenei were mixed as many saw this as a ray of hope for regime change. But Mojtaba Khamenei emerged as the new leader taking this dynamic in different directions. However the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) still continues to show its dominance over Iran’s current warcraft. As long as IRGC sustains a regime change will stay ‘a Pie in the sky’ for Iranians. There are three main reasons for this, first, IRGC enjoys dominance over the economic sector. Second and third reasons are interlinked with each other. IRGC has strong military power and it is interwoven in internal politics. The absence of a negotiator has made IRGC a wounded animal, weak yet dangerous and unpredictable.
If we look at the geopolitical perspectives we witness that this conflict is not regionally limited. As with Iran’s sanctions on Strait of Hormuz, has made it a global issue.
The Strait of Hormuz is not just passage but one of the world’s most strategically important choke points. During 2023 to 2025, 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas and 25% of seaborne oil trade passed through the Strait. Blocking this passage will further inflate the cost of goods and services and the biggest economics, including China, India and Japan, will be adversely affected by it.
The effects of this blockage have started to show its result with the 3,000 rice containers struck in the trading & logistic process. As the Economic conflicts now outpace even conventional armed conflict as the greatest short-term risk to world stability.(World Economic Forum 2026.)
Can the chaotic regime change can rarely guarantee democracy? that is still a question. Such sudden changes cause a power vacuum, where new rules are formed to make sure that winners continue to lead, this causes the loss of general welfare.
Egypt’s regime change emerged for ending dictatorship but the final result of revolt was military rule, crushing the sovereignty of Egyptians. Another example of suiciding democracy is Germany, the Nazis exploited The Great Depression and as a political manifesto and became the largest party in the parliament. Once Adolf Hitler came into power, he passed the Enabling Act, which granted him dictatorial powers.
However, we should not look at regime change in a negative way or purely black or white. This portion can be seen in a gray shade. The current condition of Iran, has two regime consequences.
The death of the Supreme Leader, made Iran to think strategically on its stand in geopolitics. The optimists see this as the first phase of democratic rule. Let’s assume that democracy is restored in Iran after the mass protest.
Nevertheless, there is no assurance that democracy will continue even after the regime change. Iran is not just a country of Persians, instead it is a mosaic of Azeris, Kurds, Lurs, Baloch, Gilakis, Mazanderanis, Arabs and Turkmen, together with Iranians. Each community has their expectations, while Kurds are fighting for their Kurdistan. Apart from this, those who supported Iran’s authoritarian political system, will not collaborate in the early phase of democracy or their groups will never enable smooth democracy.
A conflict will continue to occur, an uneven future of democracy. The leading example of this case is the India-Pakistan conflict. Sir Cyril Radcliffe’s drawing of two countries without any experience and division fueled with hatred rather than a stronger foundation of public welfare. That very old conflict is still burning affecting both countries.
Let’s take another case, the war continues with a dead end. Iran is losing everything yet not giving up. Using its geopolitical strategy of Strait affecting the whole world. The International Organisation losing its power as major economies began to withdraw their support, weakening the point of the watchdog system. A blind alley of thoughts, where major issues related to global citizenry are lost. At one point, when the world talked about Sustainable Development Goals while ignoring the unequal distribution of priorities and even their future aspirations. As the borders change, inhabitants’ rights do change.
In both cases, the general public are affected, their trauma will not leave them and what is more tragic is that this trauma will become a compass of the future because it is the grass that suffers when elephants fight (African Proverb).
By: Khushi Joshi
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