Italy Predictions for Euro 2024

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Italy has been among the top European teams. They first tasted European glory in 1968, winning the championship on home soil by defeating Yugoslavia in a replayed final. The victory set the stage for Italy’s longstanding reputation as a formidable force in European football. Despite periods of underperformance, Italy has consistently been a strong contender, reaching the finals in 2000 and 2012 but falling short both times.

Their most recent triumph came in Euro 2020, where they reclaimed the title by defeating England in a dramatic penalty shootout at Wembley Stadium. The victory ended a 53-year wait for their second European Championship under Roberto Mancini’s guidance.

Germany will host Euro 2024 from June 14 to July 14, 2024. The tournament will begin with the opening match between Germany and Scotland at the Munich Football Arena. Italy is placed in Group B alongside Spain, Croatia, and Albania, making for a challenging group stage. The group stage will run from June 14 to June 26, followed by the knockout stages, starting with the Round of 16 from June 29 to July 2. 

The quarterfinals are scheduled for July 5 and 6, with the semifinals on July 9 and 10. The final match, which will crown the European champions, will occur on July 14 at the Olympiastadion in Berlin.

Italy’s Current Odds and Expectations

Italy enters Euro 2024 with a rich history and substantial expectations. Bookmakers have listed Euro 2024 odds and listed Italy at +1400 to win the tournament, translating to a probability of about 6.7%. While these odds reflect a significant challenge, they show Italy’s potential, given its storied history and recent form. Italy’s journey will be challenging, but they can defy the odds with the right strategy and performance.

Key Players to Watch

Gianluca Scamacca

Gianluca Scamacca is one of Italy’s top contenders for the Golden Boot, with odds of +4000, suggesting a 2.4% chance. 

Scamacca’s performance for Atalanta in the 2023/24 season was impressive. He scored 18 goals and provided seven assists in 39 appearances. His ability to consistently find the net, averaging a goal every 117 minutes, makes him a critical asset for Italy.

Nicolo Barella

Midfielder Nicolo Barella is essential for Italy’s offensive play. During the Euro 2024 qualifiers, Barella led the team in assists with three, showcasing his ability to create scoring opportunities. His performance at Inter, where he contributed significantly to their Serie A title win, highlights his importance in the national setup. With 36 chances created in the season, Barella’s vision and passing will be pivotal for Italy.

Giovanni Di Lorenzo

On the defensive front, Giovanni Di Lorenzo stands out. The Napoli full-back received the most bookings for Italy during the qualifiers, with three yellow cards, indicating his aggressive and determined style of play. 

Tactical Approach and Formation

Italy’s head coach, Luciano Spalletti, will likely stick with a 4-3-3 formation, which has brought the team considerable success. This setup allows Italy to maximize its midfield strength, effectively controlling possession and launching counter-attacks. Italy averaged 62.6% possession during the qualifiers, highlighting its ability to dominate play.

In matches against formidable opponents like Spain and Croatia, Italy may need to adapt by absorbing pressure and relying on quick transitions. Midfielders like Barella and Davide Frattesi will play key roles in driving these counter-attacks.

Route to the Final

Group Stage Challenges

Italy’s path to the final is fraught with challenges, starting in Group B alongside Spain, Croatia, and Albania. Each match will test Italy’s resilience and tactical flexibility. The opening match against Albania on June 15 is crucial, as a win will set a positive tone for the tournament. The fixtures against Spain and Croatia will significantly test Italy’s mettle and tactical acumen.

Knockout Stage Scenarios

If Italy tops their group, they will likely face one of the best third-place teams in the round of 16. A second-place finish would pit them against the runner-up from Group A, likely Switzerland or Hungary. A third-place finish could mean facing a group winner like Portugal or Belgium, making the initial group matches even more critical.

Rising Stars and Future Prospects

Giorgio Scalvini: Defensive Prodigy

Giorgio Scalvini is a name to watch for the future. At just 20, he has already made a significant impact at Atalanta, helping them to Europa League glory. Scalvini’s defensive stats are impressive, with 7.7 ball recoveries, 2.6 tackles, and 1.9 interceptions per 90 minutes in the Europa League. His performances in Euro 2024 could solidify his place in Italy’s defense for years.

Summary

Italy’s journey through Euro 2024 is set to be a thrilling one, filled with challenges and opportunities. With key players like Scamacca, Barella, and Di Lorenzo, coupled with tactical expertise from Spalletti, Italy has the tools to make a deep run in the tournament. The path to the final in Berlin is tough, but the Azzurri have the history, talent, and determination to overcome the odds. 

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