Anyone who has ever seen any type of horse race has seen and heard a horse’s odds mentioned around the track. Most people, even those who are not aficionados or math whizzes, understand that odds involving lower numbers (such as 2-1) mean that the horse is thought of as having a better chance to win than one whose odds have higher numbers (such as 100-1).
But what does that actually mean? Who is in charge of assigning those odds? And how does it affect the outcome of a race? Let’s take a look.
What The Statistics Mean When Betting
The numbers on a tote board can be pretty daunting to look at, but they are actually relatively straightforward. If you bet a horse at 2-1 odds and that horse wins, that means that for every dollar you bet, you will get two dollars back (in addition to your initial investment). If you had, for instance, made a ten-dollar bet on a winning horse at those odds, you would receive your ten dollars back as well as an additional twenty dollars.
This works for odds involving other numbers as well. If a horse is being quoted at odds of 9-5, that means that for every five dollars bet, you would receive nine dollars; if you wished to make a smaller bet than five dollars, the profit would scale down accordingly. Especially heavy favorites may have odds such as 1-5, which would indicate that you would receive one dollar extra for every five dollars bet.
It is important to keep in mind that the tote boards and odds quoted at the track and on bettings apps only reflect the horse’s odds on a win bet. If you are betting a horse to place or show, or making exotic wagers, the odds for those bets (and thus the payouts) are calculated from the pool of money created from that race’s place, show, or exotic wagers and will thus be different.
Who Sets The Odds
This difference has to do with how racetrack gambling in the United States is conducted. All tracks in the United States use parimutuel wagering, a system in which the final odds of a race are determined by what percentage of bets in the betting pool are made on each horse in the race.
The favorite is the horse that has the most money bet on him, while longshots have relatively little bet on them. The payout for favorites is relatively small because the pool is split among many more people; because longshots have fewer backers, they will net a higher profit.
The “morning line,” or beginning point for the odds for a given race, is typically set by an oddsmaker employed by the racetrack. This person sets the initial odds based on which horses the oddsmaker thinks will take the most money from bettors- not necessarily who they think will win the race.
When the betting windows open and people actually start handing over their money, the odds typically shift from their morning line assignments.
Sometimes a horse looks particularly impressive before a race, or a trainer hits a hot streak, or a jockey is substituted, and that horse will end up getting more (or less) of the betting public’s confidence than the oddsmaker predicted.
This is why it is important to pay attention to the current odds as opposed to strictly the morning line, for it is only the odds on the horses at post time (when the horses are loading into the starting gate) that will be paid out.
The Outcomes
Another important point to remember, however, is that these odds only reflect which horse the people betting like, and that the odds are not necessarily indicative of talent or potential level.
Remember you can get all of your 2023 Triple Crown information, including how to place bets here: twinspires.com/kentuckyderby/betting
While betting choices are generally made using reliable factors such as the horse’s workouts or past races, it is possible for a gambling gem, such as Rich Strike in last year’s Kentucky Derby, to slip through the cracks. After all, the horses can’t read the tote board!
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